Four years after Pretoria, Tigray says it is at war again — who fired first, and who else is in the fight?

Early on Wednesday, 23 September 2026, Getachew Reda, an adviser to Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, wrote on X that the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) had "taken over federally controlled airports in Tigray" and "launched an all-out offensive against government positions in Afar and Amhara". Ethiopian Airlines suspended flights to the region, according to Al Jazeera and Reuters.

Tigray's leaders gave the same day a different name: a "defensive" war against federal aggression, AFP reported.

The fighting breaks the Pretoria Agreement, brokered by the African Union and signed in November 2022. It ended a civil war that, by African Union estimates, killed about 600,000 people. Regional diplomats and analysts had warned for months that renewed conflict in Tigray could widen into a regional war, overlapping with the civil war in Sudan.

Who started it?

Each side blames the other. The Tigray regional government said on Facebook that federal troops had carried out "intensive bombardments" on Tuesday using "aircraft, drones, and artillery". "The Tigray army has been instructed to counter the attack and genocidal invasion launched against us," it said, according to Al Jazeera.

The federal side describes the opposite. Getachew, himself a former TPLF official, wrote that "the TPLF politico-military leadership has obviously taken irresponsibility to new heights". The Afar regional government accused the TPLF of invading and said Afari forces would defend themselves with their allies, AFP reported.

Jawar Mohammed, a political analyst and former close ally of Abiy, said the federal government was limiting its engagement to show the international community that the TPLF was the instigator.

What is the new alliance?

On Sunday, 20 September, the TPLF announced an alliance with six other armed groups from across Ethiopia, aimed at overthrowing Abiy's government, Reuters reported.

One of them is the Fano militia in Amhara. Fano sided with the federal government in the 2020–2022 war but rose against it in 2023, in an insurgency that has killed thousands. Four sources, including a senior Ethiopian official and a diplomatic source, told Reuters that Tigrayan forces were now fighting alongside Fano in Amhara and alongside a local armed group in Afar.

Abiy's spokesperson, Billene Seyoum, said alliance members had been collaborating with financial backing from Eritrea. Eritrea, which backed the federal government militarily in the last war, has repeatedly denied supporting Ethiopian armed groups; its information minister declined to comment.

Where is fighting reported?

In Afar, clashes were under way on Wednesday in several areas, including Abala and Erebti, AFP reported, citing humanitarian workers. In Amhara, two residents told Reuters that federal forces were firing heavy weapons from a camp in Lalibela at Fano forces about 50 km outside the town, according to Reuters.

Reuters noted that the scale and intensity of the fighting remained unclear.

Is this a repeat of 2020?

Not necessarily on the same terms. Edward Bach of Verisk Maplecroft told Reuters that the federal government is tactically stronger than in 2020 because of its drone stocks and divisions within the TPLF. ACLED data show the Ethiopian military carried out several drone strikes against Tigrayan forces in recent months; the government has not commented on them.

Outside powers are already taking positions. US ambassador Ervin J. Massinga accused the TPLF leadership, which the US sanctioned in June, of "engaging in an unwinnable fight" and called for political dialogue. African Union Commission chair Mahmoud Ali Youssouf urged both sides to de-escalate immediately, hold direct talks, and asked neighbouring countries not to contribute to escalation.

Who is most exposed?

Tigray is still recovering from the last war, which pushed hundreds of thousands into famine conditions. About 750,000 Tigrayans were internally displaced as of February, according to the UN refugee agency, and the region faces drought linked to El Niño, Reuters reported.

What we do not know

• Casualties. No casualty figures had been published in the reports we opened.
• Who fired first. Federal and Tigrayan accounts directly contradict each other; neither has been independently verified.
• Eritrea's role. The accusation of Eritrean financing comes from Abiy's office; Eritrea denies it.
• What happened next. Our sources date from 23–25 September 2026. The situation may have changed since.

What to watch next

Whether the African Union can bring both sides back to the table it built in Pretoria; whether the fighting in Afar and Amhara spreads; and whether, as analysts have warned, a new war in northern Ethiopia becomes linked to the conflict in Sudan, which the UN calls the world's largest humanitarian crisis.

Sources

• AFP via Oman Observer: Tigrayans say new war with Ethiopian govt has begun (23 September 2026)
• Al Jazeera via Ghanaian Times: Tigray forces launch offensive against Ethiopian government (25 September 2026)
• Reuters via The Star: Tigrayan leaders say new war with Ethiopian government has begun, as fighting erupts (23 September 2026)